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Costa Rica macro at a glance: the Banco Central, the 3 percent inflation target, rates, growth and the fiscal anchor

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Last verified: 2026-10-29 · Status: Changing

The Banco Central de Costa Rica is an autonomous public institution whose main legal objectives are the internal and external stability of the colón and its convertibility. It targets 3 percent inflation with a band of plus or minus 1 point and sets a monetary policy rate (TPM) that has been 3.00 percent since 24 July 2026, while 12 month CPI was only 0.34 percent in September 2026. It projects real GDP growth of 3.4 percent in 2026 and 3.5 percent in 2027 after 4.6 percent in 2025, and Central Government debt above 60 percent of GDP has pushed the fiscal rule into its strictest scenario for 2027.

USD figures use the Banco Central de Costa Rica reference selling rate of ₡454.82 per US dollar (buying rate ₡449.44) published for 29 October 2026 (indicators 318 and 317 on bccr.fi.cr), rounded. Conversions are for orientation only.

Key facts

BCCR monetary policy rate (TPM)	3.0 %BCCR communiqué Nº 05-2026, as of 2026-10-29 · in force
Inflation target	3.0 %BCCR IPM July 2026, as of 2026-10-29 · in force
Inflation target tolerance range	2 to 4 %BCCR IPM July 2026, as of 2026-07-30 · in force
CPI, 12 month change (September 2026, base June 2026 = 100)	0.34 %INEC CPI via BCCR indicator 98407, as of 2026-09-30 · in force
Real GDP growth 2025 (preliminary)	4.6 %BCCR IPM July 2026, as of 2026-07-30 · in force
BCCR real GDP growth projection 2026	3.4 %BCCR IPM July 2026, as of 2026-07-30 · in force
BCCR real GDP growth projection 2027	3.5 %BCCR IPM July 2026, as of 2026-07-30 · in force
Monthly economic activity index (IMAE), 12 month change, August 2026	2.2 %BCCR IMAE, as of 2026-08-31 · in force
Tasa básica pasiva calculated by the BCCR	3.56 %BCCR indicator 423, as of 2026-10-29 · in force
Unemployment rate, June to August 2026	6.7 %INEC Encuesta Continua de Empleo, as of 2026-10-01 · in force
Central Government debt, July 2026	61.2 % of GDPCGR DFOE-FIP-MTR-00004-2026, as of 2026-09-30 · in force
Net international reserves (28 July 2026)	20805.4 USD millionBCCR IPM July 2026 presentation, as of 2026-07-28 · in force
BCCR reference selling rate	454.82 CRC per USDLey 7558; ROCC art. 9, as of 2026-10-29 · in force
Cap on BCCR holdings of Treasury bills	one twentieth of ordinary budget spending shareLey 7558 art. 52(d), as of 2020-04-03 · in force

The rule

1. The Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR) is an autonomous institution of public law with its own legal personality and assets and is part of the national banking system. Its principal objectives are to maintain the internal and external stability of the national currency and to ensure its conversion into other currencies. Subsidiary objectives are orderly economic development with full use of productive resources while avoiding or moderating inflationary or deflationary trends, the good use of international reserves, an efficient payments system and a stable, efficient and competitive financial intermediation system.Ley 7558, Ley Orgánica del Banco Central de Costa Rica, art. 1, art. 2 and art. 3, 1995-11-03 official text · verified 2026-10-29

2. The Bank is run by a Junta Directiva made up of the BCCR president, appointed by the Consejo de Gobierno for four years starting twelve months after the start of the presidential term and removable only for legal causes or serious and manifest breach of duty; the Minister of Finance, with voice but no vote; and six members appointed by the Consejo de Gobierno for 90 month terms, one every 18 months, which the Asamblea Legislativa may object to within 30 calendar days. The president of the Bank must present an annual oral and written report to the Asamblea on monetary, exchange, credit and financial policy, the use of reserves and the actions taken to meet the inflation objective.Ley 7558, art. 17 as reformed by Ley 9670 of 28 February 2019 and Ley 10580 of 4 November 2024; art. 28, art. 17 and art. 28(g), 2024-11-04 official text · verified 2026-10-29 · changed: Ley 9670 of 2019 removed the Minister of Finance's vote and set fixed staggered terms; Ley 10580 of 4 November 2024 reformed art. 17(c) to six appointed members with 90 month terms, one appointed every 18 months.

3. The Bank may not finance the Government or public institutions except as the law allows. It may buy Central Government securities only in the secondary market, and it may buy Treasury bills only if they are not used to repay other Treasury bills it holds, with its holdings capped at one twentieth of total spending in the Presupuesto General Ordinario and its amendments and an interest rate no lower than the BCCR basic deposit rate (tasa básica pasiva). Each purchase of Treasury bills must be reported to the Asamblea Legislativa the day after the Board decision.Ley 7558, art. 52(c) and (d) and art. 59(a), 2020-04-03 official text · verified 2026-10-29 · changed: Art. 52(c) was reformed by Ley 9839 of 3 April 2020 to restrict purchases of Central Government securities to the secondary market.

4. The policy instrument is the Tasa de Política Monetaria (TPM). On 23 July 2026 (session 6333 of 2026) the Junta Directiva cut the TPM by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent, effective 24 July 2026, citing negative 12 month inflation, core inflation around 0.0 percent since February and expectations below target. On 24 September 2026 it held the TPM at 3.00 percent by majority, describing the stance as slightly expansionary and close to neutral and warning that oil supply disruptions in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine and El Niño would push commodity prices up.
Example: Peso working capital of ₡1,000,000,000 carries a floor cost of ₡30,000,000 a year at the 3.00 percent TPM, before bank spreads. Against 12 month CPI of 0.34 percent in September 2026 the floor real rate is about 2.65 percent. / About US$2,198,672.00 of working capital and about US$65,960.16 a year of floor interest.BCCR monetary policy communiqués Nº 04-2026 and Nº 05-2026, Junta Directiva decisions under Ley 7558 art. 2 and art. 3(c), 2026-09-24 official text · verified 2026-10-29 · changed: TPM cut from 3.25 percent to 3.00 percent on 23 July 2026, the first change since December 2025; held at 3.00 percent on 24 September 2026.

5. The inflation target is 3.0 percent with a tolerance band of plus or minus 1 percentage point. In the July 2026 Monetary Policy Report the Board kept the target, said headline and core inflation were negative year on year in the second quarter of 2026, projected average headline inflation above 2 percent but below 3 percent from the third quarter of 2026 to the second quarter of 2028, and announced a review of the components of the inflation targeting framework that could change how the target is formulated.BCCR Informe de Política Monetaria July 2026, press release CP-BCCR-020-2026, IPM July 2026, inflation section, 2026-07-30 official text · verified 2026-10-29

6. From 2026 the Board reviews the TPM at six scheduled meetings a year instead of eight: 22 January, 26 March, 21 May, 23 July, 24 September and 26 November 2026, all Thursdays. It may also change the TPM on other dates if internal or external conditions require.BCCR Junta Directiva calendar decision of 18 December 2025, 2026 monetary policy calendar, 2025-12-18 official text · verified 2026-10-29

7. Since 2019 the fiscal rule limits growth of current spending across the non financial public sector to a share of average nominal GDP growth of the four previous years, set by Central Government debt to GDP at the close of the prior year: 100 percent below 30 percent debt, 85 percent from 30 to under 45, 75 percent from 45 to under 60, and 65 percent of total spending growth at 60 percent or more, which also triggers extraordinary measures. Details are on the public finances page.Ley 9635, Ley de Fortalecimiento de las Finanzas Públicas, Title IV, art. 9, art. 10, art. 11 and art. 13, 2018-12-03 official text · verified 2026-10-29

Meeting	Decision	TPM after decision
22 January 2026 (session 6303)	Hold	3.25%
26 March 2026 (session 6315)	Hold	3.25%
21 May 2026 (session 6326)	Hold	3.25%
23 July 2026 (session 6333)	Cut 25 basis points, effective 24 July	3.00%
24 September 2026	Hold, by majority	3.00%
26 November 2026	Scheduled	Pending

BCCR policy rate (TPM) decisions in 2026 (BCCR monetary policy communiqués)

Component	2025	2026	2027
Gross domestic product	4.6	3.4	3.5
Household consumption	3.8	2.9	3.6
Gross fixed capital formation	3.9	5.3	3.9
Exports	8.6	2.4	3.8
Imports	6.5	3.2	4.0
Regular regime (régimen definitivo) output	3.0	3.2	3.0
Special regimes (free zones and inward processing) output	12.7	4.6	5.7

BCCR growth projections, real percent change (Informe de Política Monetaria, July 2026; 2025 preliminary)

Worked example

Cost of local money. A subsidiary funding ₡1,000,000,000 (US$2,198,672.00) of colón working capital faces the 3.00 percent TPM as the floor of local rates, ₡30,000,000 (US$65,960.16) a year before any bank spread. With 12 month CPI at 0.34 percent in September 2026 that floor is a real rate of about 2.65 percent; if inflation returns to the 3 percent target, the real floor falls to about zero.
CPI indexation. A ₡500,000,000 (US$1,099,336.00) annual service contract indexed to 12 month CPI in September 2026 rises only 0.34 percent, ₡1,700,000 (US$3,737.74). Priced on the 3 percent target the increase would have been ₡15,000,000 (US$32,980.08); index to actual INEC figures, not the target.
Fiscal signal. Central Government debt was 60.4 percent of GDP at the end of 2025 and 61.2 percent in July 2026 according to the Contraloría, so under Ley 9635 art. 11(d) spending growth in the 2027 budget is capped at 4.08 percent and the extraordinary measures of art. 13 apply.

Step by step

1. Price the business case on the TPM and INEC's CPI, not home country rates. Check the latest BCCR communiqué and the daily indicators on bccr.fi.cr on the day you price.
2. Put the BCCR meeting dates (next scheduled 26 November 2026) and INEC's monthly CPI and quarterly employment releases in your planning calendar; see /calendar/.
3. Read the quarterly Informe de Política Monetaria for the Bank's projections and balance of risks, and the president's annual report to the Asamblea Legislativa (Ley 7558 art. 28(g)).
4. For sovereign and tax risk, follow the Ministerio de Hacienda budget, the Contraloría's annual technical report on the budget bill and the fiscal rule scenario (Ley 9635 art. 11 and art. 14).
5. Decide your currency of account: Costa Rica allows contracts and bank accounts in dollars, so set a hedging policy for colón revenue against dollar costs or debt before the first wire; see fx/overview.
6. Track macro data at /dashboard/ and the country page at /country/costa-rica/. For Argentine trade, FX or tax treaty questions, check the Argentine side in The Argentine Thread guide.

Common traps

Reading the 3 percent target as a forecast. The BCCR said in July 2026 that inflation was still below the tolerance band, 12 month CPI was 0.34 percent in September 2026, and the Bank projects average inflation above 2 percent but below 3 percent through the second quarter of 2028.
Assuming the TPM only moves down. The Board held at 3.00 percent in September 2026 by majority and flagged upside risks from oil, food and tighter global monetary conditions.
Confusing the TPM with bank lending rates. The tasa básica pasiva (3.56 percent on 29 October 2026) and actual loan rates sit above the TPM, and much credit is in dollars priced off foreign rates.
Ignoring the new CPI base. The BCCR series now uses base June 2026 = 100; check that indexation clauses refer to the official index and say how a base change is handled.
Treating the fiscal rule as a soft target. At 60 percent debt or more, Ley 9635 art. 13 freezes cost of living raises on public salaries, restricts new Government borrowing to debt relief or capital spending and bars subsidies to productive sectors unless a law allows them.
Converting multi year colón figures at one spot rate. The USD amounts here use the 29 October 2026 reference rate and understate currency risk over a project's life.

Sources

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