Countries › Guatemala › Guide › 2. Macro and country context › Guatemala macro at a glance: the rules behind the quetzal, inflation, the policy rate and the budget

Guatemala macro at a glance: the rules behind the quetzal, inflation, the policy rate and the budget

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Last verified: 2026-10-28 · Status: Changing

Guatemala's central bank has one legal objective, price stability, pursued by a Junta Monetaria that acts with absolute independence; it targets 4 percent inflation plus or minus 1 point and held its policy rate at 3.50 percent on 23 September 2026, before 12 month inflation rose to 4.69 percent in September. The quetzal is freely convertible, capital moves freely and parties may contract in dollars, while US$33.0 billion of net reserves and record family remittances of US$25.5 billion in 2025 keep the current account in surplus. GDP grew 4.3 percent in 2025 and Banguat expects 3.3 to 5.3 percent in 2026; the State is running on the rolled over 2025 budget plus a January 2026 expansion after the 2026 budget decree was suspended by the Constitutional Court.

USD figures use Q7.64427 per US dollar, the Banco de Guatemala reference rate for 28 October 2026, retrieved from the Banguat exchange rate web service on the verification date. Remittances and reserves are published by Banguat in US dollars and are quoted as published; quetzal conversions are for orientation only.

Key facts

Tasa de interés líder de política monetaria, held on 23 September 2026	3.5 %Decreto 16-2002, art. 26 a), as of 2026-09-23 · in force
Inflation target set by the Junta Monetaria (plus or minus 1 percentage point)	4 %Decreto 16-2002, art. 3 and art. 26 a), as of 2026-09-23 · in force
CPI inflation, 12 months to September 2026 (ritmo inflacionario, national level, base 2024 = 100)	4.69 %Banco de Guatemala inflation indicator, as of 2026-09-30 · in force
Real GDP growth 2025, preliminary	4.3 %Banco de Guatemala, monetary policy presentation of September 2026, as of 2025-12-31 · in force
Banguat real GDP growth forecast for 2026 (range 3.3% to 5.3%, central value)	4.3 %Banco de Guatemala, monetary policy presentation of September 2026, as of 2026-09-23 · in force
Current account balance 2025, preliminary (surplus)	4.7 % of GDPBanco de Guatemala, monetary policy presentation of September 2026, as of 2025-12-31 · in force
Family remittance inflows, 2025	25530.2 USD millionBanco de Guatemala, Ingreso de Divisas por Remesas Familiares, Cuadro 1, as of 2025-12-31 · in force
Family remittance growth, January to September 2026 over the same months of 2025	5.5 %Banco de Guatemala, Ingreso de Divisas por Remesas Familiares, Cuadro 2, as of 2026-09-30 · in force
Net international reserves, September 2026	33020.7 USD millionDecreto 17-2002, art. 10, as of 2026-09-30 · in force
Central government budget in force for 2026 (2025 budget rolled over plus Decreto 3-2026 expansion)	164163.3 GTQ millionDecreto 101-97, art. 24; Decreto 3-2026, as of 2026-01-28 · in force
Banco de Guatemala reference rate, quetzales per US dollar	7.64427 GTQ per USDDecreto 94-2000, art. 4, as of 2026-10-28 · in force

The rule

1. The Banco de Guatemala has as its fundamental objective to contribute to the most favorable conditions for the orderly development of the economy by fostering monetary, exchange and credit conditions that promote stability in the general price level. The Junta Monetaria determines and evaluates monetary, exchange and credit policy, including the programmed targets, and every other power it holds must be exercised without undermining that objective. The Junta Monetaria acts with absolute independence and under its exclusive responsibility, and its members are personally and jointly liable for acts that breach the law or harm the central bank.Decreto Nº 16-2002 del Congreso, Ley Orgánica del Banco de Guatemala, Art. 3, art. 26 literal a) and art. 27, 2002-05-13 official text · verified 2026-10-28

2. Using that power, the Junta Monetaria sets an inflation target of 4.0 percent plus or minus 1 percentage point and steers it with the tasa de interés líder, a one day policy rate. At its session of 23 September 2026 it decided unanimously to keep the rate at 3.50 percent, noting August inflation of 3.37 percent, upside risks from fuel prices and a possible El Niño, and expected GDP growth of 3.3 to 5.3 percent for 2026. Rate decisions follow a published calendar; the last scheduled 2026 session is 25 November 2026.
Example: A subsidiary funding Q10,000,000 of working capital in quetzales faces the 3.50 percent policy rate as the floor of local rates: Q350,000 a year before any bank spread. Against 12 month inflation of 4.69 percent in September 2026 that floor is a real rate of about minus 1.14 percent (1.035 divided by 1.0469, minus 1). / Q10,000,000 is about US$1,308,169 and Q350,000 about US$45,786 at Q7.64427.Decreto Nº 16-2002, art. 26 literal a); Junta Monetaria decision announced in Banco de Guatemala press release of 23 September 2026, Art. 26 literal a), 2026-09-23 official text · verified 2026-10-28

3. The central bank may issue monetary stabilization bonds only with prior approval of Congress, and may carry out open market operations only in the secondary market, trading public sector securities that the Junta Monetaria declares eligible; it does not buy government paper at issue. The President of the Banco de Guatemala must report in person to Congress in January and July each year, and Congress may demand removal by a two thirds vote if the report is unsatisfactory. The bank must publish a monetary policy report every six months and a summary of Junta Monetaria decisions affecting policy or liquidity, including the arguments for and against.Decreto Nº 16-2002 del Congreso, Ley Orgánica del Banco de Guatemala, Art. 46, art. 60, art. 61 and art. 63, 2002-05-13 official text · verified 2026-10-28

4. The monetary unit is the quetzal (Q), divided into 100 centavos, and only the Banco de Guatemala may issue notes and coins. The quetzal is the unit of account and means of payment in every transaction unless the parties expressly agree otherwise, and courts and administrative bodies must enforce what the parties agreed; fees, salaries and commissions may also be freely agreed in foreign currency. External convertibility of the quetzal and the mobility of capital are free.
Cost to do it: No exchange authorization, registration or fee is set by the law; bank charges apply.
Example: A supply contract priced at US$100,000 can stay in dollars and be enforced as written; booked in quetzales on 28 October 2026 it equals Q764,427 at the reference rate. / US$100,000 at Q7.64427 per US dollar.Decreto Nº 17-2002 del Congreso, Ley Monetaria, Art. 1, art. 2, art. 6 and art. 9, 2002-05-13 official text · verified 2026-10-28

5. The Executive must present the draft general budget to Congress no later than 2 September of the year before it applies. If Congress has not approved the budget within the constitutional term and the new fiscal year begins, the budget in force in the previous year applies again, and Congress may modify or adjust it.
Example: Budget in force for 2026: Q154,836.6 million plus Q9,326.7 million, about Q164,163 million. / About US$21,475 million at Q7.64427.Decreto Nº 101-97 del Congreso, Ley Orgánica del Presupuesto, Art. 23 and art. 24, 1997-11-20 official text · verified 2026-10-28 · changed: For fiscal year 2026 the rollover rule applied: the Constitutional Court suspended Decreto 27-2025, which contained the 2026 budget, at the end of 2025, so the State began 2026 on the 2025 budget of Q154,836.6 million. On 28 January 2026 Congress approved, with 128 votes, Decreto 3-2026 adding Q9,326,723,238, which the official news agency reports lifts the 2026 budget to about Q164,000 million.

6. Public borrowing is governed by the Constitution, this law and the laws authorizing each operation, and binds every State entity including municipalities. Borrowed funds may finance only productive, social and infrastructure investment; cases of evident national need approved by two thirds of all deputies; reorganization of the State; and liabilities with their interest. Public credit may not finance current or operating expenditure. Operations of the Banco de Guatemala under its own law to secure monetary, exchange and credit stability are excluded.Decreto Nº 101-97 del Congreso, Ley Orgánica del Presupuesto, art. 61 as reformed by Decreto Nº 13-2013 del Congreso, art. 36, Art. 61, 2013-11-12 official text · verified 2026-10-28

Indicator	Latest value	Reference period	Official source
Policy rate (tasa de interés líder, 1 day)	3.50%	Held unanimously on 23 September 2026; next session 25 November 2026	Banco de Guatemala, press release of 23 September 2026 and 2026 session calendar
Inflation target	4.0% plus or minus 1 percentage point	Standing Junta Monetaria target	Banco de Guatemala, press release of 23 September 2026
CPI inflation, 12 months	4.69% (1.18% in the month; 4.17% year to date)	September 2026, base 2024 = 100	Banco de Guatemala inflation indicator
CPI inflation, 12 months	3.37% (2.70% in July)	August 2026	Banco de Guatemala, press release of 23 September 2026
Real GDP growth	4.3% (preliminary); 3.7% in 2024	2025	Banco de Guatemala, presentation of September 2026
Banguat GDP forecast	3.3% to 5.3% (central 4.3%); 3.0% to 5.0% (central 4.0%) for 2027	2026	Banco de Guatemala, presentation of September 2026
Current account	Surplus of 4.7% of GDP (preliminary); projected surplus of 3.8% in 2026	2025	Banco de Guatemala, presentation of September 2026
Family remittances	US$25,530.2 million, up 18.7% (about Q195,160 million)	2025	Banco de Guatemala remittance statistics
Family remittances, year to date	US$20,015.7 million, up 5.5%	January to September 2026	Banco de Guatemala remittance statistics
Net international reserves	US$33,020.7 million (US$32,736.8 million at December 2025)	September 2026	Banco de Guatemala monthly reserves table
Central government budget in force	About Q164,163 million (about US$21,475 million)	Fiscal year 2026	Agencia Guatemalteca de Noticias, 28 January 2026; Decreto 101-97 art. 24
Reference exchange rate	Q7.64427 per US dollar	28 October 2026	Banco de Guatemala exchange rate web service

Guatemala macro dashboard, verified 28 October 2026 from Banco de Guatemala publications and the official government news agency. Quetzal conversions at Q7.64427 per US dollar, for orientation only.

Rule	What it means for a foreign investor	Legal basis
Single price stability objective, independent Junta Monetaria	Local rates follow the inflation target, not the fiscal calendar	Decreto 16-2002 art. 3, 26 and 27
No primary purchases of government paper; stabilization bonds need Congress	Monetary financing of the budget is legally fenced off	Decreto 16-2002 art. 46
Free convertibility, free capital mobility, dollar contracts enforced	Price, borrow and invoice in dollars if agreed; no repatriation approval	Decreto 17-2002 art. 6 and 9
Budget rolls over if Congress does not approve a new one	Spending and procurement plans can freeze at prior year levels	Decreto 101-97 art. 24
Borrowing may not fund current spending	Debt finances investment and liabilities, not payroll	Decreto 101-97 art. 61

How Guatemala's core macro rules hit an investor

Worked example

Cost of local money. A subsidiary funding Q10,000,000 (about US$1,308,169) of working capital in quetzales faces the 3.50 percent policy rate as the floor of local rates: Q350,000 (about US$45,786) a year before the bank spread. Measured against September 2026 inflation of 4.69 percent the floor is a real rate of about minus 1.14 percent; against the 4 percent target it is about minus 0.48 percent (1.035 divided by 1.04, minus 1).
Remittance driven demand. Family remittances of US$25,530.2 million in 2025 equal about Q195,160 million at Q7.64427, larger than the whole central government budget in force for 2026 of about Q164,163 million; consumer facing businesses should track the monthly Banguat remittance table, which showed growth slowing to 5.5 percent in January to September 2026 from 18.7 percent in 2025.

Step by step

1. Price Guatemalan deals off the Banguat policy rate and the inflation indicator on the day you price, and check the 25 November 2026 Junta Monetaria rate session; add the session calendar and the monthly CPI release to your planning calendar (see /calendar/).
2. Decide the contract currency up front: under Ley Monetaria art. 6 a dollar price agreed expressly is enforceable as written, so pricing, leases and financing can be set in US dollars if both parties agree.
3. Convert at the Banco de Guatemala reference rate for anything touching taxes or the State; pull it from the Banguat exchange rate web service on the transaction date.
4. If you sell to the State, check which budget is in force: in 2026 that is the rolled over 2025 budget plus the Decreto 3-2026 expansion, so confirm that your contract has a budget line before relying on payment.
5. Read the Banguat semiannual monetary policy report and the Junta Monetaria decision summaries, which must state the arguments for and against each decision, before a large quetzal exposure.

Common traps

Reading September's jump as a policy shift. Inflation rose from 3.37 percent in August to 4.69 percent in September 2026, above the 4 percent central value but inside the 3 to 5 percent band; the rate decision of 23 September predates that figure, so check the 25 November 2026 decision before assuming the 3.50 percent rate holds.
Assuming an approved budget is the budget in force. The 2026 budget decree (Decreto 27-2025) was suspended by the Constitutional Court; under Decreto 101-97 art. 24 the 2025 budget rolled over and was expanded by Decreto 3-2026. Public sector counterparties may lack appropriations that the suspended decree would have provided.
Defaulting to quetzales in contracts. The quetzal is the default unit only when the parties do not expressly agree otherwise; omitting an express currency clause leaves a dollar priced deal payable in quetzales.
Treating remittance growth as permanent. Remittances, the main source of household demand and foreign currency, grew 18.7 percent in 2025 but 5.5 percent in January to September 2026; size consumer forecasts on the monthly Banguat series, not on 2025 growth.

Sources

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