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Mexico's external sector: exports, foreign direct investment, remittances and the current account

Argentina. For full detail on Argentina, go to The Argentine Thread.

Last verified: 2026-10-26 · Status: Changing

Mexico runs a small current account deficit, 0.9 percent of GDP in the first half of 2026 and 0.5 percent expected for the full year, financed largely by foreign direct investment, while remittances of USD 30,779 million in the first half keep the income balance in surplus. Foreign direct investment reached USD 34,968 million in the first half of 2026, a record for that period in originally published figures; 88.5 percent was reinvested earnings, 48.2 percent came from the United States and 38.6 percent went to manufacturing. Exports grew 27.7 percent a year to July 2026, led by non automotive manufactures such as computer equipment, under a trade framework the Constitution lets Congress delegate to the Executive and the Senate controls through treaty approval.

USD figures use MXN 18.5026 per US dollar, the noon buying rate for 16 October 2026 published by the US Federal Reserve (H.10 series DEXMXUS, read on FRED), the latest value available on 2026-10-26. Conversions are for orientation only.

Key facts

Foreign direct investment, first half 2026 (preliminary, originally published figures)	34968 USD millionLIE art. 27 IV; CNIE report 2Q 2026, as of 2026-06-30 · in force
FDI growth, first half 2026 versus first half 2025 as originally published	2.1 %CNIE report 2Q 2026, as of 2026-06-30 · in force
Reinvested earnings, share of FDI, first half 2026	88.5 %CNIE report 2Q 2026, as of 2026-06-30 · in force
New investment component of FDI, first half 2026	2726 USD millionCNIE report 2Q 2026, as of 2026-06-30 · in force
United States share of FDI by origin, first half 2026	48.2 %CNIE report 2Q 2026, as of 2026-06-30 · in force
Manufacturing share of FDI, first half 2026	38.6 %CNIE report 2Q 2026, as of 2026-06-30 · in force
FDI from Argentina, first half 2026	776.1 USD millionCNIE report 2Q 2026, table 5.2, as of 2026-06-30 · in force
Current account balance, first half 2026	-9304 USD millionCGPE 2027 section II, as of 2026-06-30 · in force
Current account balance, 2026 estimate, share of GDP	-0.5 % of GDPCGPE 2027 section II.5, as of 2026-09-08 · in force
Current account balance, 2027 projection, share of GDP	-0.6 % of GDPCGPE 2027 section II.5, as of 2026-09-08 · pending
Remittance inflows, first half 2026	30779 USD millionCGPE 2027 section II, as of 2026-06-30 · in force
Remittance inflows, annual growth, first half 2026	3.1 %CGPE 2027 section II, as of 2026-06-30 · in force
Value of goods exports, annual growth, January to July 2026	27.7 %CGPE 2027 section II, as of 2026-07-31 · in force
Non automotive manufactured exports, annual growth, January to July 2026	42.2 %CGPE 2027 section II, as of 2026-07-31 · in force
Automotive exports, annual growth, January to July 2026	1.2 %CGPE 2027 section II, as of 2026-07-31 · in force
Value of goods imports, annual growth, January to July 2026	25.6 %CGPE 2027 section II, as of 2026-07-31 · in force

The rule

1. Foreign investment must be registered, and the registry is the statistical source. Mexican companies with foreign investment (directly or through a trust), foreign individuals and companies that habitually trade in Mexico, and trusts that give rights to foreign investors must register with the National Foreign Investment Registry (RNIE). FDI statistics published by the Ministry of Economy are built from those notifications, so late filings revise past figures.Ley de Inversión Extranjera (LIE), DOF 27 December 1993, last reform DOF 27 May 2024, Art. 32, 1998-01-23 official text · verified 2026-10-26

2. Public reporting of foreign investment. The executive secretary of the National Foreign Investment Commission (CNIE) must present Congress a statistical report on foreign investment, including the sectors and regions where it is located; the law says every four months, and the Ministry of Economy publishes the report each quarter. The report for the second quarter of 2026 states that FDI figures are preliminary and are updated in every quarterly report, with changes that can reach back to 2006.Ley de Inversión Extranjera (LIE), DOF 27 December 1993, last reform DOF 27 May 2024; Informe estadístico sobre el comportamiento de la inversión extranjera directa en México, segundo trimestre de 2026, Comisión Nacional de Inversiones Extranjeras, LIE art. 27, section IV; report section 4.8 (Actualizaciones), 1996-12-24 official text · verified 2026-10-26

3. Who sets tariffs and trade restrictions. Taxing imports, exports and goods in transit is an exclusive federal power. Congress may empower the Executive to raise, lower or remove import and export tariff rates and to restrict or prohibit imports, exports and transit when it deems it urgent to regulate foreign trade or the economy; the Executive must submit the use of that power for approval with each year's budget. This is why tariff changes are usually made by presidential decree amending the tariff law (LIGIE).Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos (DOF 5 February 1917, consolidated text to DOF 7 October 2026), Art. 131, first and second paragraphs, 1951-03-28 official text · verified 2026-10-26

4. Trade agreements need Senate approval and then bind nationwide. The Senate approves treaties the Executive signs and decisions to terminate, suspend or amend them; approved treaties that conform to the Constitution are part of the supreme law of the Union. Preferential tariffs under the USMCA, the agreements with the European Union and other partners, and the ALADI framework agreements with South American countries, including Argentina, all rest on this rule.Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos (DOF 5 February 1917, consolidated text to DOF 7 October 2026), Art. 76, section I; art. 133, 2007-02-12 official text · verified 2026-10-26

5. The official external outlook. The Finance Ministry's 2027 package reports a current account deficit of USD 9,304 million in the first half of 2026 (0.9 percent of GDP), remittances of USD 30,779 million in that half (up 3.1 percent a year) and a net capital inflow of USD 4,107 million in the financial account helped by FDI and portfolio flows. It projects a current account deficit of USD 9,705 million (0.5 percent of GDP) for 2026 and USD 13,681 million (0.6 percent of GDP) for 2027, and an average of 0.4 percent of GDP from 2028 to 2032.
Example: Remittances of USD 30,779 million in the first half of 2026 equal about MXN 569.5 billion at MXN 18.5026. / USD 30,779 million.Criterios Generales de Política Económica 2027, SHCP, 8 September 2026, Section II (economic outlook) and section II.5 (macro framework 2026 to 2027), 2026-09-08 official text · verified 2026-10-26

6. FDI in the first half of 2026. FDI totaled USD 34,968 million, 2.1 percent above the USD 34,265 million originally published for the first half of 2025: USD 24,503 million in the first quarter and USD 10,464 million in the second. By type, reinvested earnings were USD 30,957 million (88.5 percent), new investment USD 2,726 million (7.8 percent) and intercompany accounts USD 1,285 million (3.7 percent). Mexico City received USD 16,862 million (48.2 percent), largely as the corporate seat of multinationals, followed among others by Nuevo León with USD 3,711.7 million and Jalisco with USD 1,406.5 million.
Example: USD 34,968 million is about MXN 647.0 billion at MXN 18.5026. / USD 34,968 million.Informe estadístico sobre el comportamiento de la inversión extranjera directa en México, segundo trimestre de 2026, Comisión Nacional de Inversiones Extranjeras, Sections 1, 1.1, 1.4 and statistical appendix tables 5.2 and 5.3, 2026-08-24 official text · verified 2026-10-26

Origin	USD million	Share of total (%)
United States	16,871.2	48.2
Spain	4,953.5	14.2
Canada	1,741.1	5.0
Germany	1,646.9	4.7
Japan	1,299.8	3.7
Argentina	776.1	2.2

FDI in Mexico by selected country of origin, first half 2026, USD million and share of the USD 34,967.5 million total (CNIE report for the second quarter of 2026, table 5.2; preliminary figures).

Sector	USD million	Share of total (%)
Manufacturing	13,482	38.6
Financial services and insurance	10,150	29.0
Transport, mail and warehousing	2,650	7.6
Construction	2,371	6.8
Mining	1,986	5.7
Temporary accommodation	1,237	3.5

FDI in Mexico by sector, first half 2026 (CNIE report for the second quarter of 2026, section 1.2).

Item	2026 approved	2026 estimate	2027 projection
Current account, USD million	-12,018.5	-9,705	-13,681
Current account, % of GDP	-0.6	-0.5	-0.6
Exchange rate, average (MXN per USD)	19.3	17.6	17.9
US real GDP growth (%)	1.9	2.3	2.0
US industrial production growth (%)	1.1	1.4	1.8

External accounts in the Finance Ministry's macro framework (CGPE 2027, section II.5). 2027 is a projection.

Worked example

A US parent's Mexican subsidiary earns MXN 185 million after tax and keeps it to expand a plant. In the FDI statistics this counts as reinvested earnings, the component that made up 88.5 percent of first half 2026 FDI. At MXN 18.5026 that is about USD 10.0 million.
If the subsidiary instead pays the MXN 185 million as a dividend, it leaves the FDI flow and shows up as a primary income outflow in the current account; see fx/repatriation-dividends-and-capital-returns and taxes/withholding-taxes for the rules and the withholding on the payment.

Step by step

1. Use the quarterly CNIE report for FDI by country, sector and state, and remember each new report revises earlier quarters.
2. Use the September economic package (CGPE) for the official current account, exchange rate and US growth assumptions behind the budget.
3. For tariff exposure, read the LIGIE and the decrees that amend it under Constitution art. 131, and check preference eligibility under the relevant treaty (trade/usmca-rules-of-origin, trade/trade-agreements-and-preferences).
4. Register foreign investment with the RNIE on time (LIE art. 32); see fx/capital-contributions-and-reporting for the filings.
5. Business between Mexico and Argentina runs mainly through the ALADI framework, the bilateral tax treaty and each country's FX rules; for the Argentine side see https://theargentinethread.com/guide/.

Common traps

Reading the record as new money. In the first half of 2026 new investment was only USD 2,726 million, 7.8 percent of FDI; most of the total was reinvested earnings.
Comparing FDI periods on different vintages. The 2.1 percent growth compares with the 2025 figure as originally published; revised figures can give a different result because late RNIE notifications update past periods.
Reading Mexico City's 48.2 percent share as where plants are. The report notes that Mexico City captures FDI largely as the corporate seat of multinationals.
Assuming the export boom is automotive. To July 2026 non automotive manufactured exports grew 42.2 percent and automotive exports 1.2 percent.
Treating the CGPE exchange rate as a forecast. The Finance Ministry says its exchange rate figure is a reference consistent with fundamentals for budget projections, not a point forecast.

Sources

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